The changing face of cyber M&A
Brenon Daly directs the financial analysis of the 451 Research Market Insight and M&A KnowledgeBase products within S&P Global Market Intelligence. He is responsible for all financial coverage within those product lines, as well as supporting investment- and acquisition-related activity by investment banking and private capital clients. Brennon arrived at S&P Global Market Intelligence through its 2019 acquisition of 451 Research. Before joining 451 Research in mid-2006, Brenon worked at research boutique for technology-focused hedge funds, as well as trading equity and options on his own book. Brenon began his career in 1991 as a founding reporter at the first English-language newspaper in the former Eastern Bloc. Brenon moved to Vienna in 1995 to run the local bureau for United Press International before taking on an analyst position with the Economist Group, where he researched and wrote reports for The Economist Intelligence Unit and the regional publication of The Economist. In addition to earning a degree from the University of Kansas, Brenon studied at the University of Ulster (Northern Ireland) and the Vienna University of Economics and Business (Austria).
Investors are record-shatteringly bullish on the US election results. But so far, the "Trump trade" hasn't made its way over to the related M&A market. It may that be the enthusiasm around the changes in Washington takes a bit longer to show up in Silicon Valley. It could be, however, that tech dealmakers never get much of a relief rally at all.
Between elections and a central bank meeting, it's a busy week for the big picture. Both events were years in the making and will go a long way toward shaping the macroeconomic environment for some time to come. The rare confluence of two big market movers has left Wall Street polarized and a bit paralyzed.
Just when tech M&A looked poised to break out, it broke down. Spending on deals plunged from near a post-pandemic high in September to the lowest monthly level in a year and a half in October. Last month's reversal, which also took a toll on valuations, comes as acquirers appear to have gotten slightly ahead of the actual improvements in the market.
After getting caught up in high-multiple growth investing, private equity firms are returning to their historic roots as more value-oriented buyers in tech. However, even this back-to-the-future strategy isn't without risks. If PE is going to clean up on its current investments, it's going to have to clean up the acquired companies quite a bit.
No longer constrained by historically tight financing conditions, private equity firms are spending as much now as they did when credit was cheap and easy. But there is one big difference in deal flow: financial acquirers are stretching every dollar much further. M&A spending may be way up, but valuations are way down.
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